The Aussie had a horrible reaching levels last seen in 2010. The upcoming week is relatively light in indicators, but this doesn’t mean it will be light with movements. Here is an outlook for the events awaiting us, and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD, now in much lower ground.
The big blow for the Aussie came from Ben Bernanke’s twist. As a risk currency that is also dependent on commodities, the Aussie was hit bad. Also Chinese weakness didn’t really help.
- HIA New Home Sales: Wednesday. This important measure of the housing sector has shown a big slump in recent months. While this index is quite volatile, two consecutive drop of 8% and 8.7% are quite rare and are very worrying. A small rise is expected this time. Another fall will be a proof that the so called Australian housing bubble is melting.
- Private Sector Credit: Friday, 1:30. More credit in the private sector means more economic activity. After a relatively abnormal drop two months ago, credit returned to expansion, albeit at a low pace of 0.2%. A very small expansion is likely now.
- Chinese HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 1:30. Australia’s main partner is close to a stall in its manufacturing sector. According to the unofficial yet highly regarded HSBC index, China is experiencing three consecutive months of contraction in manufacturing, with a score of 49.4 points. This will likely be confirmed now. An official manufacturing PMI figure will be released over the next weekend.
* All times are GMT.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
Aussie/USD kicked off the week with a gap lower, below the 1.0315 line (mentioned last week). It never managed to get back. The sharp downfall saw the pair stabilize only under the 0.97 line, in a huge drop.
Technical levels from top to bottom:
We start from a much lower point this week, 1.0254, which was the 2010 high. Current levels are from 2010. 1.0180 was the top border of range trading at the end of 2010 and provided some support before the downfall. 1.0120 was a nice cushion beforehand.
The next line is obvious: AUD/USD parity. The very round number isn’t that strong though. It temporarily held the pair before the downfall. Below parity, 0.9930 turns into weak resistance after holding back in August.
The 0.98 line served as support early in the year, and is now a pivotal line that the Aussie struggles around. The next round number of 0.97 was a swing low in March and is minor support now.
Close by, 0.9650 is already a more important line. It cushioned the pair back in October 2010 and will be of importance if the pair moves lower.
Further down the road, 0.9540 was a stepping stone on the way up back in the fall of 2010 and then provided critical support in November. It is followed by 0.9460, which capped the pair on the way up and then turned into support.
The last line for now is 0.93 – which was a clear gap line in September 2010.
I remain bearish on AUD/USD.
The risk averse trading is far from over. Not only will Bernanke’s action (or inaction) be felt in the markets for a long time, but also the complications of the Greek crisis will continue weighing on the dollar. A big troubling difference between this crisis and 2008 is that China is also tipping lower, and this is very bad for the Aussie as its commodity exports to China are endangered, and also gold is falling fast.
- For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
- For EUR/USD, check out the Euro to Dollar forecast.
- For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
- For GBP/USD (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
- For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
- For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar
- For the Swiss Franc, see the USD/CHF forecast.