AUD/USD finds it very hard to hold onto the round 0.80 level. But it does not fall too far either. What’s next for the pair? Here are three opinions:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
AUD: Scope For Modest Gains Into Year-End; Where To Target? – ANZ
ANZ FX Strategy Research sees a number of factors that suggest that further upside in AUD/USD is possible.
“1- The impending bias shift from the RBA;
2- The still strong global growth environment; and
3- The impact of the softer inflation outcomes on the USD,” ANZ notes.
However, ANZ continues to think that this upside is limited by the fact that:
“1-The RBA’s tightening cycle will be cautious and brief; and
2- Negative sentiment towards the USD looks excessive,” ANZ adds.
All in, ANZ now sees scope for modest gains towards 0.81 into year-end.
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AUD/USD: Shooting Star Points To A Deeper Temporary Pullback – SocGen
Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research notes that AUD/USD almost achieved the intermittent resistance at 0.8125/0.8165 consisting of an upward channel median and the 50% retracement from 2014 highs earlier this month.
“Since then, the pair has started unfolding a pause. Formation of a shooting star yesterday indicates possibility of a pullback.
However given the break from a larger inverse head and shoulders pattern, the phase of correction should be temporary.
Graphical support at 0.7840/0.7780 should be an important level,” SocGen argues.
AUD: Position Adjustment Could Extend Further S/T But Dips To Remain Supported – Nomura
Nomura FX Strategy Research notes that AUD has declined on the back of the FOMC-induced rise in the USD and comments from RBA Governor Lowe pointing to a lack of urgency to raise interest rates.
“We think this position adjustment in the AUD could run a little further in the near term, but fundamentally dips down towards 0.78-0.79 should remain supported. The domestic economic outlook is improving, the turn in the RBA cycle should continue to be priced, we do not think the rebound in the USD will last, and Australia’s balance of payments dynamics remain AUD positive,” Nomura argues.
“AUD/NZD has moved against our expectations, with the market also re-pricing New Zealand election risks. We remain of the view that broader macroeconomic trends point to a higher AUD/NZD* in coming months,” Nomura adds.
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