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Australian Employment Change, which is released monthly, provides a snapshot of the health of the Australian labor market. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the Australian dollar.

Here are the details and 5 possible outcomes for AUD/USD.

Published on Thursday at 00:30 GMT.

Indicator Background

Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. Thus, the release of Employment Change  is a market-mover which can affect the movement of AUD/USD.

In  October, the indicator posted a modest gain of 1.1 thousand, well below the estimate of 10.3 thousand. The markets are expecting a strong turnaround for November, with  the  estimate unchanged at 10.3 thousand. Will the indicator match or beat this rosy prediction?

The RBA  did not reduce  interest  rates last week,  but it continues to  loudly shout  that it wants to see a weaker Australian dollar. This  is weighing on the Aussie, which  has been struggling against  its US cousin.  Sharp US employment numbers last week, led by Non-Farm Payrolls has increased speculation of a December taper, which could help the US dollar, as a QE scale down is a US dollar-positive event. So, the overall sentiment is bearish on AUD/USD towards this release.

Technical levels from top to bottom: 0.9283, 0.9180, 0.0947, 0.90, 0.8893  and  0.8747.

5 Scenarios

  1. Within expectations:  10.0K to 13.0K: In this scenario, AUD/USD could show some slight fluctuation, but it is likely to remain within range, without breaking any levels.
  2. Above expectations: 13.1K to 17.0K: A strong reading could push the pair above one resistance level.
  3. Well above expectations: Above 17.0K: A sharp rise in employment numbers could propel AUD/USD upwards, and two or more resistance lines could be broken.
  4. Below expectations:  6.0K to 9.9K: A lower than expected reading could pull the pair downwards, with one support level at risk.
  5. Well below expectations:  Below 6.0K: A very poor reading will likely hurt confidence in the  Australian economy  and  AUD/USD could break two or more support levels.

For more on the Aussie, see the AUD/USD forecast.

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