The Aussie jobs data has arrived and it has helped the Aussie higher on inline Unemployment Rate and no changes.
- Fulltime Employment (Mar) 48.3K vs prior – 7.3k
- Employment Change s.a. (Mar) 15k vs exp 12.0k and prior 4.6 k (10.7k rev)
- Part-Time Employment (Mar) – 22.6k vs prior 11.95
- Unemployment Rate s.a. (Mar) 5.0% vs exp 5.0% and prior 4.9% (Uptrend in the unemployment rate would open the door to a rate cut).
- Participation Rate (Mar) 65.7% vs exp 65.6% and prior 65.6%
More to come on revisions…
For reference (Bank Analysis and opinion prior to the data):
Analysts at Westpac explained that the RBA has made clear that an uptrend in the unemployment rate would open the door to a rate cut.
After the modest 5k rise in Feb, consensus for Mar is 15k. Westpac looks for 8k. This would keep the annual pace of jobs growth at a firm 2.3%. But if the participation rate remains at 65.6%, this would see the unemployment rate rise to 5.1% from 4.9% in Feb (a low since Mar 2011). Consensus is 5.0%.
About the Employment Change
The Employment Change released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in Australia. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth. Therefore, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).