Tomorrow, we have an all-important release of Australian employment data for the month of December, and here are the expectations and forecasts from 2 of the banks regarding the upcoming labour data.
TD Securities
Analysts at TD Securities are looking for Australian employment to lift by another solid +30k in Dec, in line with job ads pointing to ongoing 2 ½%/y employment growth.
Key Quotes
“We are top of the market’s wide +1k to +30k (median +18k). When our +30k is combined with an unchanged participation rate of 65.7%, the unemployment rate could drop to 5.0%, within the range seen throughout 2018. Mkt at 5.1%.”
Westpac
Research team at Westpac is forecasting the Australian employment to lift by 5k in December and while it expects the unemployment rate to stay at 5.1%.
Key Quotes
“Our forecast 5k gain will see a three month average gain of 23.6k (it was 25.4 in Nov) for an annual pace of 2.1%yr.”
“With the return to more average participation we are looking for the reported participation rate to fall to 65.6%, driving a small fall in the labour force (-2k) and holding the unemployment rate flat at 5.1%.”
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