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Analysts at ANZ are expecting Australian GDP to grow by around 2.5% through 2019 and 2020, matching the average since 2013, lower than previously anticipated and reflecting a more cautious outlook for wages, household spending and non-mining investment.

Key Quotes                

“There is some offset from more expansionary fiscal policy, and we expect net exports to contribute – not just because of a continued lift in LNG volumes.”

“Downside risks seem easy to identify, not least the uncertain impact of the slide in house prices on the outlook for household spending and residential construction.”

“On the upside, while we have built some further fiscal slippage into our forecasts it could be larger. We’ll find out the fiscal starting point for the election campaign in the Budget on 2 April.”

“We have the RBA on hold in 2019-20, consistent with the expectation that the unemployment rate ends 2020 a little lower than currently.”