Search ForexCrunch

Justin Smirk, analyst at Westpac, suggests that the moderating housing costs, competitive retailing & low inflation expectations have locked in low inflation for the Australian economy.

Key Quotes

“The CPI rose 0.5%/1.8%yr in Q4; the average of the RBA core inflation measures rose 0.4%qtr/1.8%yr. Inflation continues to hold under the RBA’s target band and with the two quarter annualised pace running at 1.2% suggests it is unlikely get back into the band anytime soon.”

“Moderating housing inflation has been key to containing inflation below the RBA target band. Even with our expectation for a modest lift in housing inflation through 2020, we still don’t see it being able to sustain inflation within the target band.”

“With downside risks to dwellings and rents inflation in the CPI, downside risks are apparent for our forecasts for both headline and core inflation.”

“Our preliminary estimate for the March quarter 2019 CPI is 0.1%qtr /1.4%yr for headline and 0.4%qtr/1.6%yr for the average of the core measures.”