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Analysts at ANZ are expecting a soft result for Australian Q4 GDP of 0.2% q/q, and suggests that it is disappointing and could force the RBA to downgrade its outlook again in the May report.

Key Quotes

“We will also certainly be revising 2019 GDP lower, with implications for our call on the RBA. We will finalise our Q4 GDP print once we see the rest of the partials on Monday and Tuesday.”

“In a recent report we noted that sharp slowdowns in GDP growth are not unusual in Australia. And not all slowdowns support a monetary policy response.”

“We think the key is what happens to unemployment. Despite the slowdown in growth, the leading indicators do not point to a sharp jump in the unemployment rate over the first half of this year.”