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Australia’s GDP is expected to rebound by the most in 12 years in the third quarter, although remains vulnerable to downside risks amid a slowdown in business investment due to the coronavirus pandemic, the latest Reuters poll of economists showed on Monday.

Key findings

“Official figures on Wednesday will show the economy grew about 2.5% in the July-September quarter, bouncing back from its first recession since 1991. Some expect Australia’s economic output could return to pre-pandemic levels as soon as the first half of next year.”

“Growth in the current quarter is seen even stronger as the state of Victoria, formerly a COVID-19 hotspot, emerged out of its marathon lockdown in October, while other states broadly reopened in May.“

“Even so, the country’s central bank is expected to keep policy rates near zero and extend its A$100 billion ($73.86 billion) quantitative easing programme next year as inflation and unemployment are likely to undershoot its target range for a while yet.”