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  • Australia’s August international trade data has  been released and has come in lower than the surplus expected.
  • Trade Balance: 5,926M  vs 6,000M expected and 7,268M prior.

Another historically large surplus was  likely, according  to analysts at Westpac, who were looking  for $5.6bn; noting that the consensus was  $6bn, expecting exports to have fallen -3.5%, (prior 1%) led by metal ores, coal and gold. “Imports are likely to have edged up 0.6%,'( (prior 3%),” mostly due to a softer AUD rather than stronger demand,” the analysts explained.  

The data arrived as follows:  

  • Exports: vs -3% vs 1% prior.
  • Imports: vs 0% vs 3% prior.
  • Trade Balance: 5,926M  vs 6,000M expected and 7,268M prior.

Note: We had records  of A$8bn in June and of July’s A$7.3bn.

AUD/USD, which has been stabilising on US Dollar weakness on the 0.67 handle has  subsequently moved a few pips higher  despite the miss.  

Australian Trade Balance Report – August Full Report

[ABS Press Releases – 03 October 2019]

In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $6,925m in August 2019, an increase of $73m on the surplus in July 2019.

In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $5,926m in August 2019, a decrease of $1,327m on the surplus in July 2019.

About the trade balance

The trade balance released by the  Australian Bureau of Statistics  is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.

  • Review Alex Nekritin’s Article –  Trading the Aussie with Australia Trade Balance