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Catherine Birch, analyst at ANZ, suggests that they expect to see an increase of 0.6% q/q in Australia’s Q1 2019 wage data, which will be released on Wednesday 15th May and will result in maintaining of annual growth at 2.3%.

Key Quotes

“We are forecasting a gradual pick-up in wage growth to 2.4% by Q4 2019. This is dependent on our expectation that the unemployment rate will track sideways at around 5%. Any rise in the unemployment rate would stifle the (slow) progress that wage growth has made over the past couple of years.”

“However, for wage growth to continue to improve (and for it to get anywhere near the long-run average over the longer-term) we see a sustained, material decline in the underemployment rate as the key requirement.”