Australia goes to the polls about a week after Brexit. This could shape the direction of the Aussie while the world is not looking. Here are the scenarios from Nomura: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: With global focus on the UK referendum and outcome, investors could be forgiven for forgetting that Australia will be holding an election on 2 July, in which both the lower and upper house seats are up for grabs. We wrote on the elections a couple of weeks ago; since that time local polls have remained quite tight and markets still appear relatively complacent. Our base case remains that the Liberal/National Coalition (L-NP) will win the elections, with a significantly reduced majority; this appears to be the consensus market view. However, given how close the polls are, we suspect that many market participants are not sufficiently considering the likelihood of a win by the Labour Party or of a minority government involving post-election discussions and uncertainty. Market impacts under alternate scenarios To summarise, here are our views: L-NP win – The status quo and the removal of the uncertainty should be positive for AUD in the short term. Moreover, the market would see a smaller chance of an AAA downgrade, and Australian sovereign CDS would perform well as would Australian banks. ALP victory – The ALP’s platform suggests a bigger deficit in the coming year. The uncertainty associated with the change in government would likely be negative in the short term, especially since a larger fiscal deficit would increase the perceived risk of a potential credit downgrade. However, there is also a risk that the increased spending or at least the removal of the fiscal drag could allow the RBA to stay on hold, which would be positive for AUD. Minority government – The uncertainty generated by this scenario would be negative for AUD, as there would be several days of confusing protracted negotiations. Because smaller parties are closer ideologically to the ALP, the uncertainty stemming from a minority ALP government may dissipate faster than if the result is a minority L-NP government, as an agreement to support the government would be easier to reach. For lots more FX trades from major banks, sign up to eFXplus By signing up to eFXplus via the link above, you are directly supporting Forex Crunch. Yohay Elam Yohay Elam Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts. Yohay's Google Profile View All Post By Yohay Elam Forex News Today: Daily Trading News share Read Next EURUSD , GBPUSD , USDJPY and XAUUSD TA – June 30 2016 John Benjamin 6 years Australia goes to the polls about a week after Brexit. This could shape the direction of the Aussie while the world is not looking. Here are the scenarios from Nomura: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: With global focus on the UK referendum and outcome, investors could be forgiven for forgetting that Australia will be holding an election on 2 July, in which both the lower and upper house seats are up for grabs. We wrote on the elections a couple of weeks ago; since that time local polls have remained quite tight and markets still appear relatively complacent.… Regulated Forex Brokers All Brokers Sponsored Brokers Broker Benefits Min Deposit Score Visit Broker 1 $100T&Cs Apply 0% Commission and No stamp DutyRegulated by US,UK & International StockCopy Successfull Traders 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk.2 T&Cs Apply 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk.3 Recommended Broker $100T&Cs Apply No deposit or withdrawal feesTrade major forex pairs such as EUR/USD with leverage up to 30:1 and tight spreads of 0.9 pips Low $100 minimum deposit to open a trading account 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.4 T&Cs Apply Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.5 Recommended Broker $0T&Cs Apply Trade gold, silver, and platinum directly against major currenciesUp to 1:500 leverage for forex trading24/5 customer service by phone and email 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.