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Head of Australian Economics at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ), David Plank, offers his afterthoughts on the Australian job advertisement data released earlier this Monday.

Key Quotes:

“Job ads in June jumped 4.6%, reversing a bit more than half of the sharp drop in May. The gain was one of the biggest in 18 months. We don’t think it necessarily represents a turn in the overall downward trend, however.

Job ads plunged more than 8% in May as a result of the timing of the election and the late April ‘holiday year’ effect (when Easter and ANZAC Day were close together).

The subsequent jump in job ads in June represents only a partial recovery from that weakness, suggesting that the overall trend is still downwards.

This points to slowing employment growth and rising unemployment. If confirmed by the actual employment data, then the RBA will likely react by lowering the cash rate yet again.”