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Risk assets are running hot as our pandemic sentiment gauge reads ‘hope’, giving rise to the narrative that the worst is now behind us, per TD Securities.

Key quotes

“Containment efforts could start to be reconsidered as early as this month as the bulk of the US population would be 50% past peak hospital utilization.”

“Our real-time commodity demand indicator contrasts with the optimistic view and continues to show demand hovering near the lows with strong downside momentum.” 

“While China continues to re-open, its ability to export will be hampered by the still cascading shock as containment efforts damage Western economies, which further inflicts damage on commodity demand.” 

“Copper is benefiting from the supply side with some virus-related disruptions.”