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Base metals prices (except nickel) have fallen to multi-year lows. But analysts at ANZ Bank expect metals with less diversified use (zinc, nickel, and lead) to be hit by further weakness. 

Key quotes

“Considering global and Chinese demand declines, we see global copper demand down nearly 3.5% y/y to below 23mt this year.”

“While acknowledging the downside risks to the copper price this quarter, we have kept our forecast at USD4,500/t, with prices averaging below USD5,000/t for the remainder of the year.

“The market appears to be pricing in a significant fall in demand for aluminium, with prices already at a multi-year low. As such we see limited downside to prices and leave our Q2 price forecast at USD1,500/t. ”

“The downside risk to nickel prices could be limited to USD10,000/t, given its exposure to China and electric vehicles.”