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  • Risk-off markets stalled the downside in the yellow metal as stocks take a turn for the worst on political angst and paring back of speculative positions.  
  • Gold has been developing the bearish case below the key confluence of the 23.6% Fibo, 1300 psychological level and trendline support.  
  • Currently, gold is trading at 1287, down within the day’s range of between 1297 and 1282 as the dollar firms, attacking the neckline of the hourly H&S around 96.60/70.  

Gold prices have been suffering as traders step away from safe havens, expecting a trade deal to be confirmed anytime soon between the US and China which fuelled a too far too fast rally in the benchmarks which pulled in a lot of speculative money out of gold. However, on the cautionary note of Robert Lighthizer that much work was still needed to be nailed down, including working out how it will be enforced. “If we can complete this effort – and again I say IF … we might be able to have an agreement that helps us turn the corner in our economic relationship with China,” Lighthizer said in testimony to the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee last week – in stark contrast to a WSJ weekend article which suggested the two powers are much closer to a deal than that.  

Some are putting the stock market selloff down to a buy the rumour sell the fact, but that is unlikely considering there has been no fact to sell and, indeed, a trade deal is still not a foregone conclusion. “The reality is this is a challenge that will go on for a long, long time,” Lighthizer said.  

Politics in Washington a thorn  in the side of risk appetite

  • US stocks plummet: Timings of symbolic move from Democrats probe into Trump ‘obstruction of justice’ allegations and trade talk deal concerns kick-in

In other news, politics in the White House are back on the cards. The investigation into allegations surrounding Trump’s obstruction of justice have resurfaced in recent sessions and the impeachment of President Donald Trump could be back on the cards.  

The Democrats have launched today an “abuse of power” investigation demanding documents from Trump’s government, his family and even his real estate empire – Requests for documents have been sent to 81 individuals and entities.

The White House confirmed the receipt of one of the requests – “The Counsel’s Office and relevant White House officials will review it and respond at the appropriate time,” press secretary Sarah Sanders said.

Dollar firmer, weighing on gold

Lastly, the dollar has managed to collect a bid again, despite Trump’s jawboning of the currency over the weekend when he said it was too strong, waving his finger again at the Fed., blaming the U.S. central bank’s tight monetary policy, arguing that it was contributing to a strong dollar and hurting the United States’ competitiveness. The H&S’s neckline resistance  is under threat which opens up the potential of lower gold prices, especially should bears capitulate and allow for a run up to 97.30 as the last defence for the winter 2018 highs of 97.80 – this week’s nonfarm payrolls are expected to be solid, fuelling the bid in the greenback.  

Gold levels

Bears took on the 23.6% Fibo down at 1302 and are well placed below the rising channel’s support at 1320 and lower support at 1306 for an extension to the 38.2% Fibo located at 1,275, with the confluence of the late Jan support area. However, the 4hr stochastics are well oversold and price is now  correcting accordingly.