Nicholas Mapa, senior economist at ING, suggests that central banks of Indonesia and the Philippines are expected to await more data and enact a dovish pause on Thursday.
Key Quotes
“A number of emerging market central banks will be meeting shortly after, including Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). Barring any surprise cut the Fed, we do not expect any fireworks from BI nor from BSP at their respective policy meetings tomorrow. However, we do expect both to enact a “dovish pause” by keeping the policy stance neutral but simultaneously signaling the increased likelihood for easing in the near term depending on prevailing conditions.”
“Governors of both the central banks have pointed to easing monetary policy. BI Governor Warjiyo has indicated that “there’s room to lower interest rates”, while BSP’s Diokno has openly pledged to slash policy rates further noting that it would be inevitable.”
“It’s safe to say that both central banks appear ready and willing to pull the trigger on further rate cuts, with both having engaged in aggressive policy tightening in 2018 with a total 175 bps rate hike in the face of heightened risk-off tone.”
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