The equity and risk asset markets are nervous ahead of the US election day scheduled for November 3rd.
There is a level of angst creeping through markets this week, even as Joe Biden consistently leads in national and swing-state polls.
Wall Street investors are still concerned about the possibility of a contested election, one of the main risks highlighted in this week, S&P 500 weekly forecast:
- S&P 500 Weekly Forecast: The tide could be about to go out ahead of the US Elections
In the latest polls, such as the TRS/Ipsos Poll, 51% of Michigan likely voters back Biden, while 43% support Trump.
Then, according to the same poll, 48% of North Carolina likely voters back Biden and 47% support Trump.
In general, the Opinium and Guardian US latest national US poll revealed that, over the last month, undecided voters have swung towards Biden.
”Democrats have also injected momentum into existing supporters, with voters for Biden now more likely to turn out than they were last month, up from 75% in September to 82% this month,” the official website says, adding:
”Subsequently, Biden’s lead over Trump, including don’t know voters, has increased to 17 points. That is, 57% of likely voters intend to vote for Biden and 40% intend to vote for Trump.”
Meanwhile, Reuters quoted Desjardins Capital Markets saying that Election Day will be critical for markets depending on the best-case scenario of smooth election proceeds.
The article explained a timely declaration of winner versus the worst-case scenario of compromised election and disorder for an uncertain period of time was also key.
”Markets would react positively to a victory from Democrats but would react “most” positively to a Republican clean sweep.
The lowest market impact will be coming from Joe Biden’s victory but Democrats failing to overturn the Senate, or where Donald Trump wins but Democrats still hold on to the House of Representatives.”
Wall Street Close: Uncertainty wipes the floor with the bulls
Share
