Bitcoin Price Forecast: Analyst predicts an explosive Q4 based on on-chain metrics

• Bitcoin must overcome resistance at $11,700 to continue the upward movement.
• On-chain metrics show that the number of addresses holding at least 1 BTC has been increasing steadily.

Over the last seven days, Bitcoin jumped up from $10,600 to $11,500 as the premier cryptocurrency looks to trade above $12,000. However, BTC may be on the verge of a truly historic Q4.  Analyst Chris Russi explained why BTC is on the verge of exploding in a series of tweets.

Bulls holding on to their tokens

LookIntoBItcoin’s 1Y+ HODL Wave chart allows you to look at the percentage of circulating supply that has not moved in over a year. As per the chart, 63% of all coins have not moved for over a year. 

This is the highest this chart has ever reached and it shows that the users are holding on to their coins instead of selling them off. Plus, it looks like the number of addresses holding at least 1 BTC has been increasing steadily.

LookIntoBitcoin’s 1 Year + HODL Wave

Plus, according to Glassnode, the number of unique addresses holding at least one BTC has been steadily increasing, posting new all-time highs. This is a very healthy sign, as it shows that Bitcoin’s network is growing steadily.

Number of addresses holding at least 1 BTC

The technical outlook

BTC is currently trapped between the 50-day and 100-day SMA chart. The MACD shows increasing bullish momentum, so further growth movement can be expected.

BTC/USD daily chart

The daily chart shows a strong resistance at $10,700, which is currently pushing the price down. As per the IOMAP, 1.2 million addresses had previously purchased 895,000 BTC at this level.

BTC IOMAP

Upon conquering this resistance zone, the buyers will have enough momentum to push the price above $13,000.

The Flipside: Can the bears do any damage?

The number one cryptocurrency by market cap is currently sitting on top of three strong support walls, as shown in the IOMAP. The first support line lies at $11,300, wherein 1.12 million addresses purchased 540,000 BTC. 

Following that, the next healthy support walls lie at the 50-day SMA ($10,850) and the 100-day SMA ($10,750). They appear strong enough to absorb any buying pressure, effectively capping the downside at $10,750.

A drop below these support zones could be catastrophic as the next healthy support lies at the 200-day SMA  ($9,700).

Key price levels to watch

Bitcoin bulls need to conquer the $11,700 resistance line to push the price into the $13,000 territory.  The IOMAP shows a lack of strong resistance beyond this level.

If the bears take control, they will need to deal with three healthy support walls at $11,300, 50-day SMA ($10,850) and the 100-day SMA ($10,750). This effectively caps off the downside at $10,750.