Bitcoin Price Prediction: How Far Can BTC Fall?

• Bitcoin price could drop towards the $35,000 psychological level.
• IOMAP shows BTC faces massive resistance on the up-side.
• Bitcoin must close the day above the $38,000 level to re-start the bullish leg.

Bitcoin price has been on a downward trend since Saturday, where it fell by approximately 11% from around $42,200 to close the day at around $37,58 on Tuesday. BTC had previously tanked to a low of around $29,303 on July 20 from around $36,660 on June 28. During this bearish trend, BTC managed to flip the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) from support to resistance and reversed the Parabolic SAR from positive to negative.

Bitcoin Price Retreats Below The $38,000 Mark

Before the recent bearish rally, Bitcoin price had traded in the green for 10 days in a row between July 21 and July 30 rallying roughly 42% when BTC jumped from $29,754 to highs pf about $42,200 going above the $42,000 psychological level. During this rally, the largest cryptocurrency flipped the 20-day and the 50-day SMAs from resistance to support.

The parabolic SAR just turned negative while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence Indicator (MACD) could send a call to sell crypto in near term signal indicating that the recently witnessed bearish momentum could be sustained as seen on the daily chart.

Moreover, the dive of the Relative Strengths Index indicator adds credence to this bullish thesis.

Bitcoin Price (BTC/USD) Daily Chart

At the time of writing BTC was trading hands just below the $38,000 psychological level at around $37,911 on most crypto exchanges. The immediate support is found at $37,600. Note that a daily closure below this level will push the Bitcoin price further down towards the 20-day SMA currently at $36,356 and 100-day SMA at around $35,000.

BTC Faces Massive Resistance Upwards

On-chain metrics from IntoTheBlock’s In/Out of the Money Around Price (IOMAP) model indicates any upward recovery by BTC will be met by significance resistance. The immediate resistance is found around the $39,500 level where it coincides with the 200-day SMA. It lies within the $73 and $125 investor cluster where roughly 703,000 addresses hold approximately 1.04 million BTC.

This resistance appears robust enough to absorb any buying pressure aimed at re-starting the recovery leg.

BTC/USD IOMAP Model

Looking Over The Fence

Note that a Bitcoin price daily closure above the $38,000 psychological level could re-start the bullish leg to push the price even higher. If this happens, BTC could overcome the 200-day SMA and re-test the areas above the $40,000 and $42,200 psychological levels as seen earlier this week.

Further movement upwards could see BTC explore areas beyond the $45,000 psychological level.

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