Bitcoin’s recovery back on track, or is it a dead cat bounce?

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  • BTC/USD is not ready for recovery as of yet.
  • A move above $7,000 will mitigate the initial pressure. 

Bitcoin (BTC) bottomed at $6,818 on Monday and managed to recover above $6,900 by the time of writing. Mostly unchanged on a day-to-day basis, the first digital coin struggles to regain ground above critical $7,000 amid market indecision. 

Meanwhile, this day two years ago, Bitcoin hit its all-time high at $19,811. A Twitter user Th Moon (@themooncarl), noted this fact.

Exactly two years ago today, the  #Bitcoin price hit its $19,931 all-time-high. Exactly 1 year ago today, the  #BTC  price was $3,245, very close to the bottom. December seems to be a significant month for Bitcoin! 

If history is any guide, we may be in for an exciting December. However, it is hard to tell whether the excitement will result in strong recovery or sharp sell-off, considering the increased volatility ahead of the pre-Christmas period.

Santa’s rally canceled?

Many cryptocurrency experts expected Bitcoin’s recovery int the end of the year. The upside trend, known as Santa’s rally, is typical for the financial markets; however, the cryptocurrency industry may miss it out this year unless BTC/USD recovers above $7,000 in the nearest future. 

From the technical point of view, there is no clear evidence that the recovery is around the corner. The downward-looking RSI (the Relative Strength Index) on the intraday charts implies that the price is more likely to retest the recent low. Once it gives way, stronger support of $6,500 will come into focus, This barrier, created by November low, is followed by the lower line of the weekly Bollinger Band at $6,350. 

On the upside, a move above $7,000 will mitigate the initial pressure; however, it is not enough to get BTC back on the recovery track. The upper boundary of the recent consolidation range at $7,300 is likely to stop the bull and push the price back into the channel. Once it is out of the way, the recovery may be extended towards $7,500.

BTC/USD, the daily chart

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