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Rabobank analysts expect the Bank of Canada to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% today, which is expected by 22 of the 23 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg and CAD OIS implies almost no chance of a move in either direction at the July meeting.

Key Quotes

“CAD OIS currently points to around a 20% chance of a cut by year-end compared to 40% heading into the previous BoC meeting on May 29th.”

“The Bank was a little more optimistic in its last meeting compared to back in April and this week’s meeting is likely to see Poloz highlight a stronger backdrop while discussing implications of a potential US ‘insurance cut’ later this month.”

“It is unlikely that Poloz will discuss rate hikes but wait-and-see will be the name of the game.”

“We have maintained the same view since Q1 and we see little reason to change it at this stage – to our mind, the likely next policy move will be a cut in 2020 Q2.”