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According to analysts at Westpac, the Bank of England’s August decision is looking finely balanced after it has previously signalled a gradual modest tightening will be required over the next few years.

Key Quotes

“And since their previous decision, we’ve seen the unemployment rate remain low and a number of indicators have pointed to a firming in growth through the middle part of the year.”

“However, the pace of growth remains muted. In addition, inflation has been easing back, with the core rate now down to 1.9%. On top of those factors, the political backdrop remains rocky, with Brexit casting a long shadow over the economy’s longer-term outlook.”

“Given the lingering downside risks, we expect that the Bank of England will keep the Bank Rate on hold at its August meeting, and that they will maintain a gradual tightening bias.”