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James Smith, Developed Markets Economist at ING, suggests that with under six months to go until Brexit talks conclude in October (allowing time to ratify the withdrawal agreement), time is running out.

Key Quotes

“Talks are currently centred on resolving the Irish border conundrum, and so far UK ministers remain divided on which customs model to pursue.”

“Admittedly, we doubt that the Brexit headlines over the next few weeks will make much of a difference to the odds of a summer rate rise. Having said that, policymakers will be aware that it could get increasingly challenging to hike rates later this year as Brexit noise increases before the UK formally leaves the EU in 2019. Depending on how the economy performs before August, policymakers may want to capitalise while they still can.”