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Analysts at Rabobank offer a brief preview of what to expect from Super Thursday’s Bank of England (BOE) May monetary policy meeting accompanied by its minutes and the quarterly inflation report (QIR).

Key Quotes:

“We don’t expect the Bank of England MPC to change its policy settings at this week’s meeting. This will mean that Bank rate remains unchanged at 0.75%.

We expect the MPC to stick to their guidance of slowly rising rates. Their confidence may even be bolstered a bit by some better-than-expected activity data, while the recent rise in oil prices is likely to have pushed the CPI forecast somewhat higher for the second half of 2019.

But the MPC is for now trapped in a holding pattern due to Brexit. If the uncertainties regarding Britain’s withdrawal do dissipate in the second half of the year, it may re-find the confidence to talk about rising rates.

But with the risk of a US recession in 2020 then already looking imminent, we believe the MPC may eventually prefer to hold off acting for longer.”