The BoJ April meeting and Summary of Opinions states that there continues to be risk Japan may slide into recession depending on sales tax hike impact, overseas developments.
Key points:
- Uncertainty on price outlook will persist through fiscal 2021;
- Must scrutinise whether Japan is in a protracted situation where soft inflation weighing on inflation expectations, vice versa;
- Must maintain current easy policy with eye on side-effects, also need monetary and fiscal policy mix toward fiscal 2021;
- Must always think about ways to boost sustainability of policy framework;
- Appropriate to review forward guidance on interest rates due to heightening overseas uncertainties;
- Such as by mentioning time frame on how long BoJ will keep rates very low;
- Must ease policy further decisively, flexibly if momentum for achieving price target lost;
- Must carefully balance benefits, costs of monetary easing;
- Further declines in interest rates could aggravate demerits of monetary easing more than boosting economy.