Home BoJ Policy At An ‘Impasse’; USD/JPY Downside Remains In
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BoJ Policy At An ‘Impasse’; USD/JPY Downside Remains In

After the BOJ made some generic policy changes, USD/JPY shot higher. However, this did not last too long and Dollar/yen is falling back down. There may be more room to the downside:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

Prior to the MPM, market participants generally argued that the yen would rise without an easing, and weaken only briefly and modestly in the event of an easing before turning back upward. Thus, they unwound yen long positions and sent the USD/JPY up to the high ¥102 level temporarily in expectation of headlines that the BoJ would reinforce its easing and create a nebulous policy statement. The decision successfully avoided intensifying the market unease over the policy outlook with initial JPY-rising reaction. However,  it also left an impression that policy is at an impasse, which is unlikely to heighten expectations that the BoJ will achieve its 2% price stability target.

We do not believe at all the measures will bring about a sustained rise in the USD/JPY. The upside for the USD/JPY should continue to be capped by Japanese exporters and other hedgers.

We feel that the downside risk for the USD/JPY will remain in force unless the US economy can soon regain its strength.

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Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam

Yohay Elam: Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I've accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I've earned a significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I've worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.