The latest Reuters poll of economists revealed that the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) next monetary policy move is likely to be the tapering of its massive stimulus.
Key Findings:
“Among the 41 economists polled by Reuters Jan. 6-17, 24 said the BOJ’s negative rate policy did not help the economy and prices, while 17 said they did.
The poll also showed 28 of 42 economists, or 67%, expect the BOJ’s next step to be a withdrawal of stimulus, up from 61% in the December poll. Those who predicted such action said it would happen sometime next year or later, the poll showed.
The ratio of those who predict the BOJ’s next move to be an expansion of stimulus stood at 33%, down from the previous month’s 39%.
The BOJ will keep monetary policy steady and nudge up its economic growth forecast at a two-day rate review ending on Tuesday.
Analysts polled expect core consumer inflation, which includes oil products but not fresh foods, to hit 0.6% in the current fiscal year ending in March and 0.5% the following year.
They also expect Japan’s economy to have shrunk an annualised 3.6% in the October-December quarter.
Japan’s economy will likely expand 0.5% in the fiscal year beginning in April and 0.8% the following year, thanks in part to an expected boost from the government’s $122 billion fiscal stimulus package.”
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