Home Brazil: A hangover from the Black Friday – Rabobank
FXStreet News

Brazil: A hangover from the Black Friday – Rabobank

Analysts at Rabobank note that Brazil’s headline retail sales (i.e. “varejo ampliado”) fell 1.7% m/m (+1.8% y/y) in December, disappointing the consensus (-0.7%; 4.0%) and Rabobank’s own estimate (+1.6%; 7.4%).

Key Quotes

“The result seems to have been influenced by a payback to strong Black Friday sales in November – an effect that our models (clearly) failed to capture.”

“Despite the influence from recent shocks (e.g. truckers’ strike in May; one-off transfers in Q3), the trends point to continued expansion in goods consumption. In Q4, the broad retail sales index rose at a sequential annualized speed of 1.3% (Q3: 7.6%); in 18H2, broad sales moved at a sequential annualized pace of 4.5% (18H1: 4.2%).”

“The much lower than expected retail sales performance prompted us to revise down our projections for December IBC-Br index (out on Friday). We now look for a stable year-on-year print (previous: +0.9%), and a sequential decline of 0.1% m/m (previous: +0.3%).”

FX Street

FX Street

FXStreet is the leading independent portal dedicated to the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market. It was launched in 2000 and the portal has always been proud of their unyielding commitment to provide objective and unbiased information, to enable their users to take better and more confident decisions.