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Analysts at TD Securities see the slightly hawkish “mark to market” of Brazil’s policy stance as increasing the meaningfulness of the minutes.

Key Quotes

“While the BCB has reiterated that policy settings below the structural interest rate remain justified, they have acknowledged the less friendly external environment, which can potentially impact inflation through BRL.”

“In this sense, the BCB is suggesting next move is now more certain to be higher with rates, particularly if BRL comes under severe pressure. The balance in the BCB’s view between the inflation-suppressive output gap and external threats will be interesting, and something to watch for in the minutes.”