AUD/USD has been mixed on the data dump, but on the downside, considering how poor the housing data has come in, the market would look to 0.7022/15 October low and 50% retracement ahead of the 0.6950 as the 61.8% retracement.
Homes loans dropped 6.1% vs -2% expected – a big miss and prior -0.9%
There was some solace, however, in the NAB survey that was watched closely by markets today following the recent confirmation from the RBA that rates are not about to be hiked any time soon. There was a steep drop in business conditions in the previous report, from +10 to a +2, below long term averages. However, on today’s data, the prognosis for the Aussie at this critical juncture in analyses of both the US and the Australian economy is more positive – (Note, the index for business conditions and confidence were very strong in 2017 but tailed in off in the second half of 2018).
- Business conditions 7 vs prior 3, revised from 2
- Business confidence 4 vs prior 3