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Reserve Bank of Australia Lowe is appearing before the House of Representatives Economics Committee to discuss the outlook for the economy where markets are looking to the risks to the central view.

We will also see the release of the February Statement on Monetary Policy later today (00:30 GMT) which will include the full set of updated forecasts noted in the decision statement and Governor Lowe’s speech.

Key notes in the outlook for the economy

  • RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA GOVERNOR SAYS EXPECTED PICK-UP IN GROWTH SUPPORTED BYMONETARY POLICY, A NEW EXPANSION PHASE IN THE RESOURCES SECTOR, STRONGER CONSUMER SPENDING AND A RECOVERY IN DWELLING INVESTMENT LATER THIS YEAR
  • 06-Feb-2020 16:37:08 – RBA GOVERNOR SAYS CENTRAL FORECAST FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH TO PICK UP TO 2¾ PER CENT THIS YEAR AND 3 PER CENT OVER 2021.
  • 06-Feb-2020 16:37:18 – RBA GOVERNOR SAYS OUTLOOK IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN EXPECTED MODEST LIFT IN GLOBAL GROWTH
  • RBA GOVERNOR SAYS STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY
  • 06-Feb-2020 16:37:40 – RBA GOVERNOR SAYS THE OUTBREAK OF THE CORONAVIRUS REPRESENTS A NEW SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY

 

FX implications

Having held in February, markets are now pricing a 15% chance of easing at the next RBA meeting on 3 March, and a terminal rate of 0.45% (RBA cash rate currently at 0.75%). AUD/USD has failed to really gain traction on the bid, running into prior support structure falling just shy of the 0.68 handle targets.