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During July, oil prices oscillated in a remarkably narrow range, ending the month slightly higher (Brent +5.2% MoM; WTI +2.5% MoM) with the pulse of global oil markets stuck in a range bound environment, given the push-and-pull between the virus and the reopen. Strategists at MUFG Bank see oil price risks skewed to the downside this summer and forecast Brent trading at $36/b and $46 by end-Q3 and Q4, respectively.

Key quotes

“Macro vulnerabilities stemming from a resurgence of the virus in the US, lagging global jet fuel growth, an expected slowdown in Chinese oil imports, headwinds to normalising activity in countries where the virus remains under control and heightened geopolitical animosities between the US and China, all amalgamated together, signals a likely lid on prices with broadly range bound activity expected in the third quarter, with oil price risks skewed to the downside.” 

“We expect the amalgamation of more tepid demand growth and the clearance of the large inventory overhang, to induce an upside cap in oil prices for the rest of 2020 – we forecast Brent ending Q3 and Q4 at $36/b and $46/b, respectively.”