Brexit coming to the crunch – ABN AMRO

Ahead of Saturday’s special UK Parliament session, Han de Jong – Chief Economist at ABN AMRO Bank – offered his take on the latest Brexit developments.

Key Quotes:

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson reached a deal with the EU on Brexit. The deal takes the ‘backstop’ out of the equation, but puts an economic border in the Irish Sea. At the time of writing European leaders still have to agree to the deal, but there is no reason to think they will not.
 
A much higher hurdle for the deal is the UK parliament which is meant to vote on the deal on Saturday. My colleague Bill Diviney has set out the various options here. The government does not have a majority in parliament so things are complicated. But it is far from impossible that the deal passes as some MPs may prefer this deal over taking the risk of a hard(er) Brexit.
 
It is also possible that the deal is passed on the condition that it is put to a new referendum. Should the deal get rejected new elections look inevitable and it then all depends on what platforms the various parties will campaign on. So, there is still uncertainty, but the good thing is that a hard Brexit has become a lot less likely. We should know a lot more after the weekend.