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The UK”s leading think-thank, the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said in its latest report, the UK economic growth is likely to be trimmed by 3.9% by 2030 should the Britain strike a free trade deal with the EU to replace its current membership.

Key Findings (via Reuters):

“The hit would be the equivalent of losing the economic output of Wales or the contribution of London’s financial services industry.

NIESR’s latest report predicted that following the UK government’s Brexit deal with the UK, by 2030 the lost output would be equivalent to about 1,100 pounds ($1,400) per person per year.

If Britain leaves the EU in March with no deal, but with some agreements to avoid major disruption to trade and travel, the economy will be 5.5 percent smaller by 2030 than under continued EU membership.

It said the hit would be less if Britain remained in a customs union with the EU “” a backstop option in London’s deal with Brussels “” which would leave the economy 2.8 percent smaller by 2030 than if it stayed fully in the bloc.”