Brexit: Game of votes – Nordea Markets

Morten Lund, Research Analyst at Nordea Markets, points out that on 11 December, the fate of Theresa May’s Brexit deal will be decided and suggests that reaching a majority in parliament looks unlikely and if the vote fails, the door for adverse scenarios is wide open.

Key Quotes

“It is finally here. The big season finale of the Game of Votes. Thus, following five days of debate (4-6 and 10-11 December), the fate of Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal will be decided by a simple majority in the House of Commons on the eve of  11 December.”

“Although the deal would still need to pass an implementation legislation in both houses of Parliament as well as be approved in the European Parliament (and formally also the EU Council despite the acceptance 25 November) after that, we believe  this so called “meaningful vote” is the real test  for Theresa May’s Brexit deal. If Theresa May fails to secure a majority on 11 December, the  game opens up with a wide range of adverse outcomes.”

“The question now is whether Theresa May can win the “meaningful vote”.  According to voting inclinations, this is unlikely – at least in the current draft version. Thus, the choir screaming about deficiencies in the Prime Minister’s Brexit plan has become very vocal, with several MPs in turn pointing out that the deal is far from gaining a majority.”