Brexit negotiations amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

Danske Bank analysts point out that Brexit negotiations continue ahead of the EU summit starting today and will be a key event for markets.

Key Quotes

“A Brexit deal was not reached yesterday, as DUP is still not on board and without DUP’s support it is difficult to see the deal pass in the House of Commons in a potential vote on Saturday. If DUP says yes, it is a game changer and then it looks much better for PM Johnson.”

“The EU council meeting starts today with arrivals at 13:30 CEST. According to the agenda, the EU leaders are set to take stock of the Brexit negotiations today but depending on what happens it may be postponed to tomorrow. The EU leaders have other things to discuss besides Brexit like accession talks with Albania and the Republic of North Macedonia, Turkey’s military operations in Syria and EU’s long-term budget.”

“We also have some interesting global data releases today, not least for the US. At 14:30 CEST building permits for September, the Philly Fed index for October, initial jobless claims and manufacturing production in September are all being released. We also have some more FOMC speeches ahead of the Fed’s blackout period starting on Saturday.”

“In the Scandi markets, focus is on the Swedish labour market data due out at 09:30 CEST, which will be important input for what the Riksbank is going to do. Unemployment has risen from 6% in April to 7.4% in August. Our forecast is that there will be a bounce back in the September unemployment rate sa to 6.8%.”

“Note that Chinese industrial production and Q3 GDP growth are due out overnight.”