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ING analysts note that the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson has announced that parliament will be prorogued – or suspended – between the weeks of 9 September until 14 October, when the  Queen’s speech will take place.

Key Quotes

“The big question for markets is: does this decision make a ‘no deal’ Brexit more likely?”

“We think the answer is yes – slightly – although we suspect the underlying motivation is to steer parliament’s anti-no deal efforts towards a vote of no confidence and election, rather than the legislative path that has emerged over recent days.”

“It goes without saying however that the next few weeks are heading into unchartered territory. For the pound, all of this means further weakness to come.  “

“The result is that all of this may well go down to the wire. But while it’s tempting to conclude that the decision to prorogue parliament is to force through a ‘no deal’ exit, we aren’t necessarily convinced this is true. Mr Johnson could have set the date for the Queen’s speech much closer to the 31 October deadline – or indeed after it.”