Brexit Scenarios And outcomes For EUR/GBP – Danske

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Brexit has dominated pound trading and also moved the euro. What does it mean for EURGBP?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

Danske Research outlines how binary Brexit scenarios would impact EUR/GBP prices in 1-3 month.

“Near term, the political situation in the UK will be pivotal for the GBP. We expect EUR/GBP to stabilise and fall back into in the 0.865-0.88 range if, as we expect, Theresa May survives a vote of confidence. However, EUR/GBP is likely to remain volatile ahead of a Brexit vote in the House of Commons,” Danske argues.

In our main scenario, where we expect a decent Brexit, we expect EUR/GBP to break lower and settle around 0.83 in 3M. However, the likelihood of our main scenario has declined substantially, while the probability of other scenarios, such as a no-deal scenario, has increased.

We expect EUR/GBP to test 1.00 in a no-deal scenario, while we expect EUR/GBP to break lower into the 0.82-0.86 range if the UK calls a second referendum,” Danske adds.

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Yohay Elam – Founder, Writer and Editor I have been into forex trading for over 5 years, and I share the experience that I have and the knowledge that I’ve accumulated. After taking a short course about forex. Like many forex traders, I’ve earned the significant share of my knowledge the hard way. Macroeconomics, the impact of news on the ever-moving currency markets and trading psychology have always fascinated me. Before founding Forex Crunch, I’ve worked as a programmer in various hi-tech companies. I have a B. Sc. in Computer Science from Ben Gurion University. Given this background, forex software has a relatively bigger share in the posts.