British voters face a historic and critical choice about the future of the United Kingdom and the European Union on Thursday June 23. Great Britain will organize a referendum where its citizens have the ability to answer whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union or whether the U.K. should leave the E.U. Guest post by Chris Svorcik – Senior analyst of Admiral Markets The British choice is really geopolitics In my view the choice whether to stay or leave the E.U. is ultimately a question of geopolitics, which is a long-term strategic decision. The main issue is: …do the British voters prefer the U.K. to have an important role in the E.U… …or do they prefer to promote their national interests outside of the EU framework? It is unusual for political leaders to fall back on a form of direct democracy (referendum) for grand strategic decisions. Exceptions in recent history were the previous referendums in Scotland on leaving, ironically, Great Britain in 2015 and Quebec on leaving Canada in 1995. Both times voters choose to “stay”. What’s at stake with a ‘Brexit’? Simply put, the “remain” vote will provide a green light for the continued strategic cooperation between the E.U. and U.K., which allows the U.K. to influence E.U. policy from up close. Whereas the “leave” vote will enable independent choices in foreign and economic interests. Of course, there are dozens of other factors that weigh into the voter’s mind… the potential Brexit namely impacts commerce, finance, politics, migration, security and even agriculture. Both the “stay” and “remain” camps put forward their own arguments and expectations. In reality, the number of variables, factors and reactions are vast and extensive, which makes any prediction difficult and riddled with “what if” and flaws”¦ Brexit prediction: yes or no? The “stay” camp average has given away its lead for the first time since September 2015. However, the UK public is broadly divided down the middle, when we look at those who already have a strong feeling on the issue. The key demographic will be those that “don’t know”, which is roughly 10 percent of the populous. Last year I estimated an 80% chance of the UK staying for the EU versus a 20% chance of the UK leaving but now the odds seem closer to 50-50%. At the end of the day I believe it will be psychologically easier for undecided voters to choose “stay” rather than “leave” because, generally speaking, change is a usually a tougher choice. The results will be very close… however ultimately I expect the stay camp to win by a slim margin. Will other EU countries follow? If British voters choose for a Brexit, then there is a significant chance of other countries following the British example and eventually exiting the E.U as well. This might not happen immediately but the potential ‘domino effect’ could destabilize and even derail the European Union… Please join our live webinar for a thorough analysis of the Brexit impact on the Forex and financial markets. And in case we miss anything in this discussion, please feel free to ask us questions directly via twitter using this hashtag – #AMBrexitFAQ Sincerely, Admiral Markets Guest Guest View All Post By Guest Opinions share Read Next USD/CAD: Setbacks Guest 6 years British voters face a historic and critical choice about the future of the United Kingdom and the European Union on Thursday June 23. Great Britain will organize a referendum where its citizens have the ability to answer whether the United Kingdom should remain a member of the European Union or whether the U.K. should leave the E.U. Guest post by Chris Svorcik - Senior analyst of Admiral Markets The British choice is really geopolitics In my view the choice whether to stay or leave the E.U. is ultimately a question of geopolitics, which is a long-term strategic decision. The main… Regulated Forex Brokers All Brokers Sponsored Brokers Broker Benefits Min Deposit Score Visit Broker 1 $100T&Cs Apply 0% Commission and No stamp DutyRegulated by US,UK & International StockCopy Successfull Traders 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk.2 T&Cs Apply 9.8 Visit Site FreeBets Reviews$100Your capital is at risk.3 Recommended Broker $100T&Cs Apply No deposit or withdrawal feesTrade major forex pairs such as EUR/USD with leverage up to 30:1 and tight spreads of 0.9 pips Low $100 minimum deposit to open a trading account 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.4 T&Cs Apply Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.5 Recommended Broker $0T&Cs Apply Trade gold, silver, and platinum directly against major currenciesUp to 1:500 leverage for forex trading24/5 customer service by phone and email 9 Visit Site FreeBets ReviewsYour capital is at risk.