CAD: BoC To Announce A Tapering Roadmap This Week; Risk Skewed Towards A Weaker CAD – BofA

What is the outlook for the Canadian dollar in Q2?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

Bank of America Global Research discusses its expectations for this week’s BoC policy meeting.

“We expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to present a significantly more constructive outlook for the Canadian economy on 21 April, but without changing its current monetary policy stance: rates at 0.25%, same forward guidance and purchases of at least C$4bn per week. We do expect the BoC to announce a roadmap on adjustments to the pace of government bond purchases, to start tapering as soon as in July once it is clearer that the recovery is well under way,” BofA notes.

“We believe risks are skewed toward disappointment in the rates and FX market, which are leaning toward taper at this meeting. We continue to expect USDCAD to retrace higher to 1.29 in 2Q, as the result of an additional leg of broad-based USD strength, commodity price consolidation and a modest rebuild in CAD risk premium reflecting moderation in global risk appetite,” BofA adds.

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