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Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the Canadian economy to give back 10k jobs during month of April, which will help nudge the pace of job growth lower after averaging 36k for the six months through March.

Key Quotes

“We have argued that recent labour market gains are unwarranted by the current economic backdrop, and while it is difficult to predict the timing of a giveback, we think this tilts the risks towards a soft print.”

“Full-time employment should drive the pullback, which will add to the downbeat tone of the report, while the goods-producing sector should account for most of the jobs lost during the month with manufacturing in the spotlight after Markit PMI tipped into contractionary territory for the first time in three years.”

“Job losses of 10k should see the unemployment rate edge higher to 5.9% assuming modest labour force growth while we expect wage growth to hold at 2.3% y/y.”