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In view of analysts at TD Securities, Canada’s headline CPI is forecasted to edge higher to 2.0% YoY in September, with prices down by 0.3% on the month (market: 2.1% YoY, -0.2% MoM).

Key Quotes

“Airfares and travel services will provide the main catalyst for the monthly decline; seasonal effects are most punitive in September, and airfares have already risen by 17% over the last two months.”

“Core measures should fare better and hold at 2.0% y/y on average, providing little incentive for the BoC to move off the sidelines in 2019.”