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Canada: Growth softened further in Q1 – NBF

According to Krishen Rangasamy, analyst at National Bank of Canada, despite today’s soft GDP reading, Canadian real GDP remains on track to grow around 2.2% in 2018.

Key Quotes:

“Canada’s GDP expanded at an annualized pace of just 1.3% in the first quarter of 2018. But there were upward revisions to Q2 and Q3 of last year, pushing up slightly the growth print for 2017 as a whole to 3.05% (from 3.00%).”

“The Canadian GDP results were weaker than expected. While consumption spending contributed to real GDP, its growth was the weakest in three years, likely a result of moderation in employment creation which hammered real disposable incomes during Q1. Fading housing wealth effects amidst softening home prices, may also have
weighed on spending.”

“The large drag from trade was due to surging imports, the latter reflecting rising business investment which is a positive for GDP and potential GDP as well. Last but not least, a decent handoff from March ─ real GDP grew 0.3% unannualized in that month ─ warrants optimism for Q2.”

“All in all, Canada’s real GDP remains on track to grow about 2.2% this year, although that assumes employment and consumption spending growth bounce back.”

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