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“Industry-level GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.2% m/m in May after a robust performance over the last two months,” say TD Securities analysts.

Key quotes

“Goods-producing industries will provide the main source of strength on a rebound in manufacturing output and sustained strength in construction activity, while the energy sector should make a muted contribution after leading industry-level growth for March and April.”

“On the other end of the spectrum, lower retail and wholesale volumes point to a material drag on services while the moderation in existing home sales suggests a bit less lift from real estate activity. Industry-level GDP growth of 0.2% should be sufficient to keep Q2 GDP tracking near 3%, above estimates from the July MPR (2.3%). However, the BoC has already downplayed Q2 strength as temporary in the July MPR and a small beat will not be enough to outweigh elevated global uncertainty, leaving the BoC in wait-and-see mode.”