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Analysts at TD Securities are looking for the Canadian labour market to shift into a lower gear with job growth of 5k in June, which if realized will register as the second weakest month since August 2018.

Key Quotes

“Details should prove more uplifting than the headline print. Modest employment growth should be sufficient to keep the unemployment rate unchanged at a multidecade low of 5.4%, and wage growth is poised to climb higher to 2.8% y/y owing to a muted increase last June.”

“In fact, base-effects will become a significant tailwind to wage growth over the coming months; wages for permanent workers declined by 0.03% m/m on average from June-October 2018, which compares with an average increase of 0.45% m/m over the last six months.”

“Elsewhere, we also look for a modest rebound in private employment after the loss of 20k private sector jobs last month.”