Canada: Labour market still on a tear – RBC

Josh Nye, senior economist at Royal Bank of Canada, notes that Canadian employment rose 54,000 in September while the unemployment rate fell 0.2 ppts to 5.5% and the hourly wage growth surpassed 4% in Q3.

Key Quotes

“There was no give-back after August’s strong jobs numbers as Canada recorded another above-50,000 employment gain in September (the fifth such increase in nine months this year). The labour force is growing at its fastest pace in more than a decade, helping sustain job growth late in the economic cycle.”

“Wage growth, previously the missing link in a strong labour market backdrop, has picked up momentum this year and is running north of 4% per today’s data. A broader look at wages also suggests cycle-high growth.”

“The combination of expanding employment and rising wages has provided some insulation for consumers, some of whom have faced higher debt servicing costs after rate hikes in 2017 and 2018.”

“Today’s data suggest the BoC doesn’t need to rush to undo those earlier rate hikes, even as other central banks are opting for additional accommodation.”