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Today, the Canadian jobs report for July is due out at 12:30 GMT and as we get closer to that time, here are the expectations forecast by the economists and researchers of six major banks regarding the upcoming employment data. Most of the market specialists are expecting Net Change in Employment to post-reading in between +325K and +550K in July, while the consensus is +400K reading. In addition, the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 11% from 12.3%.


“Our economics team expects a drop in the unemployment rate from 12.3% to 10.5%, with a 550K net increase in unemployment.”


“We are calling for a +325K print. Such gains would lead to a decrease in the unemployment rate from 12.3% to 11.4%, assuming the participation rate rose further to 64.3%.”


“Canadian labour markets probably continued to look a little better in July. Though the 400K increase in employment we expect would still leave the job count down about 1.4 million compared to February levels, even after the 1.2 million jobs added over May and June. Labour force participation likely also continued to rebound but we still expect job growth to be enough to push the unemployment rate down to (a still elevated) 11% from 12.3% in June.”


“While the headline reading won’t catch as many eyes as the almost 1 million jobs recovered in the June report, the 380K increase in employment is nothing to sneeze at. It will likely mean that Canada paces the US in terms of employment relative to pre-COVID levels. At 11%, the unemployment rate might look a tad higher than that in the US, but it’s only because the Canadian numbers are calculated in a different way than those south of the border.”


“The pace of hiring is set to slow in July with TD forecasting job growth of 350K, down from 953K in June. This reflects a moderation in the rollback of emergency measures and if realized would leave the unemployment rate at 11.5%. Mobility trends and other high-frequency indicators have continued to improve through the month, albeit at a more modest pace than June, and CERB claims have continued to trend lower. Like June, we expect the hardest-hit industries across the service sector (retail, accommodation, food services) to lead job creation while Ontario and Quebec should outperform on a regional basis. Hours worked will be closely watched in addition to the headline print for insight into economic activity for July.”


“Following a strong ~950K increase in employment in June, Citi analysts expect another solid increase of 400K in July. They also expect the Unemployment Rate to fall to 11.0% from 12.3%.”