Canadian Dollar – Jan 31 – Feb 4

GDP, Employment Data and Ivey PMI are the major event this week. Here is an outlook on the Canadian market movers and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said on Jan 26 he expects further moderate economic growth and said the government wants to make additional cuts in personal income taxes. The ruling minority Conservative government should present its budget however requires the support of at least one of the opposition parties to pass it. If all three vote against the plan, the government would fall and an election would be called.

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines marked. Click to enlarge:

1. GDP: Monday, 13:30. Real GDP gained 0.2% in October, following a decline of 0.1% in September. Analysts expected 0.3% rise. Oil and Gas Extraction is the main cause for growth. Future GDP quarters are likely to demonstrate growth with strong commodity prices and with an increase in US domestic demand. The same rise is expected now.
2. RMPI: Monday, 13:30. Canada’s raw materials price index rose above expectations in November surging by 3.5% after 2.1% gain in October. This rise was mainly due to fuels, metals and vegetables. Analysts had expected the raw materials purchase price index to rise by 2.2%. Year-over-year, the RMPI has been on an upward trend since November 2009. A further rise of 2.7% is predicted now.
3. IPPI: Monday, 13:30. In November, the Canadian Industrial Product Price Index (IPPI) increased 0.5 thanks to petroleum and metals prices. This is the eighth consecutive year-over-year increase. The 4.6 percent increase in the value of the Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar dampened the IPPI’s year-over-year advance in November. Without the impact of the exchange rate, the IPPI would have risen 3.2 percent instead of 2.1 percent. Another increase of 0.6% is forecasted.
4. Employment Data: Friday, 12:00. Canada’s unemployment rate was flat in December remaining at 7.6 while the economy added 22,000 new jobs. Despite the flat rate, the jobs total was slightly better than the 20,000 increase that analysts were expecting. This is the fourth increase in the past five months indicating that the Canadian economy continues to produce jobs. 22,400 new jobs are expected while Unemployment is forecasted to remain 7.6%.
5. Ivey PMI: Friday, 15:00. Canada’s Ivey purchasing managers’ index fell more-than-expected in December falling to the 50.0 point line from 57.5 in November while 52.7 was expected. This important index shows a decline in the Canadian purchasing activity at the end of 2010. Another rise to 53.7 is predicted.

*All times are GMT.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD had a very choppy week. After failing to go below 0.9930 (mentioned last week), USD/CAD jumped higher and eventually closed above parity, at 1.0012.

USD/CAD parity now serves as a support line. This line is very important, despite the breakouts. Below, minor support is found at 0.9977, which was a support line in 2010. The next cushion is at 0.9930, which also had a role in the past week.

Significant support below is found at 0.98, which was a line of strong support back in 2008. It’s followed by 0.97, which had the same role at the time. Every week, the pair dips a little bit lower. This is likely to slow towards 0.98, with 0.9837 being the year-to-date low.

Looking up, 1.0140 served as resistance in December and also as support in the past. It serves as immediate resistance. Above, 1.0280 also worked in both directions, being resistance recently.

Higher, the next line is  1.05. It capped the pair twice during the summer and is the next minor line of resistance. The strong 1.0680 capped the pair during July and August, for more than one day in each attempt to break higher.

Even higher, 1.0750 was a swing high during May and also the limit  of a long-term range in 2009. The last line is, 1.0850, which was also a swing high back then.

I am bearish on USD/CAD.

The mess in Egypt sent traders to safe haven currencies, but it also pushed oil prices higher. Together with the improvement in the American economy and the strong job market,  USD/CAD has more reasons to rise than to fall.

Further reading:

• For a broad view of all the week’s major events worldwide, read the USD outlook.
• For EUR/USD, check out  the Euro/Dollar forecast.
• For the Japanese yen, read the USD/JPY forecast.
• For GBP/USD  (cable), look into the British Pound forecast.
• For the Australian dollar (Aussie), check out the AUD to USD forecast.
• For the New Zealand dollar (kiwi), read the NZD forecast.
• For USD/CAD (loonie), check out the Canadian dollar.

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