Canada is expected to report an increase of roughly 100,000 jobs in March after 259,200 in February. Here you can find the forecasts of economists and researchers of sic major banks regarding the upcoming employment data.
USD/CAD has been trading below 1.26 ahead of the publication due out at 12:30 GMT and amid stable petrol prices.
RBC Economics
“We look for next week’s labour market report to show strong job growth in March (+150K) as virus containment measures continued to ease. Industries that make up the hospitality sector are massively over-represented in remaining economic weakness – accounting for 80% of the shortfall in total hours worked versus pre-shock (February 2020) levels – and that’s also where we expect to see more job growth in March as restrictions on things like restaurant dining (at least on outdoor patios) eased.”
TDS
“We look for the Canadian economy to add back another 150K jobs in March as the continued rollback of emergency measures in Ontario facilitates further recovery across parts of the service sector. Job growth of 150K would pull the unemployment rate lower to 7.7% and leave total employment just 2.3% below pre-covid levels.”
NBF
“Encouraged by the easing of restrictions, we are calling for a 75K job gain in the month. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, could have fallen two ticks to 8.0%.”
BBH
“A 90K gain is expected vs. 259.2k in February, while the unemployment rate is expected to fall a couple of ticks to 8.0%. Like the US, Canada saw a loss of momentum in the economy going into year-end but is seeing a strong recovery in Q1. Yet the vaccine rollout in Canada has lagged even the laggards in Europe and so maintaining momentum will be hindered somewhat. We expect fiscal policy to carry the burden of stimulus in 2021.”
CIBC
“There was likely an echo in March from February’s boom in hiring. As restrictions were further relaxed, employment likely recovered more ground, particularly in the hardest hit sectors of the economy. More Canadians are also expected to have reentered the labour force. All in all, we expect a 60K job gain in March. That said, there might be evidence that employment growth in some of the goods sectors that have provided strong tailwinds for the overall labour market and the economy as a whole waned in March. But, even that will likely be due to temporary factors such as maintenance shutdowns at oil extraction sites.”
Citibank
“We expect a strong 175K increase in employment in March following a ~260K job gain in February. This would put employment at its highest level since pre-pandemic employment levels, with around 425K jobs still lost compared to February 2020.”
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